Get Up Eight Times

I have plenty of things to say about the Suns-Spurs series (an utter nightmare for a sports fan to watch), but I still haven’t gotten over it quite yet, and I’m afraid any answer I give will be lacerated with all sorts of nasty phrases that few would appreciate. Let me move onto the Western Conference Finals preview; I’ll get back to that stupidity later.

Backcourt: To the common eye, Tony Parker torched the Suns again. But despite all of his reputed success, Parker’s +/- playoff rating is a subpar -2.2. Why? Because his success is contingent on Duncan’s ability to post up, draw the extra man, and either open up the lanes for Parker to run or the spot up area for his jumpers. Duncan dominated Stoudemire and wore down Kurt Thomas in Games 5 and 6, and when the double team from Marion came, the shot rotation allowed for Parker to find his open spots. And even then he missed plenty.

His defense is also very weak–we’d like to see how many times he let Barbosa fly past him and had to force Duncan to bail him out. Just wait until he’s hounded for 48 minutes straight by the tough minded point guards of Utah. Deron Williams or Derek Fisher (most likely Fisher) will get the defensive assignments, and Fisher has shown he can contain Parker from his Laker past in the playoffs.

As for Deron Williams, he’s still fresh into the playoffs, and will definitely struggle at times. But he has shown strength, especially in terms of being able to drive to the hoop, and either create his own shot or draw attention away from one of the big men. His biggest issue is foul trouble, which probably mean Sloan will have him sticking on Bruce Bowen/Brent Barry/not Ginobili or Parker all series long. Plus, the upgrade from Golden State and Houston to a two-time champion (not counting the third, since it was a lockout-shortened season) will leave a lot to be desired.

Manu Ginobili was the Spurs biggest player in the 2005 NBA Finals (by all accounts, he should’ve been MVP). In these playoffs though, he has struggled to find his place, good in only two games (3 and 6, the difference in the Suns series). It would not surprise us to see someone like the resurgent Kirilenko on him for extended stretches, simply because if he plays well, so do the Spurs. His play could go a long way to deciding who wins.

The X-factor in all of this is Derek Fisher. Will he step up big again like he did in the last three Jazz wins? Can he run point if Williams struggles? Will he also be able to stay on Parker and Ginobili in the crucial stages? He’s had plenty of rest to do so. Michael Finley might also play a big role, depending on how Utah plays Tim Duncan.

Frontcourt: Tim Duncan is no longer going to be able to impose his will on a team, nor will they be able to have key sequences where they control the boards with Oberto having the advantage (no one on the Suns could really match up with that asshat, and he contributed mightily to keep the Spurs in a few games). Bowen is the beneficiary of double coverage or kickouts; his offensive capabilities will be very limited in this series while his defensive ‘role’ will be larger.

On the other side, Kirilenko, Boozer and Okur have all had their moments in this postseason. That frontcourt is loaded and brimming with confidence, and will likely have a great battle of the boards all series long. Boozer will likely be the one playing Duncan, and his one-on-one play could determine how easily Duncan can pass out to the perimeter players. Boozer’s offensive game will change too–he will have a tough time getting the same numbers he piled earlier in the playoffs, but he does have a quick move to the paint that he can exploit against Duncan.

Kirilenko’s resurgence will also be a matter of worry for San Antonio, since he never played well against them in the regular season–Bowen might get duties on him early in this series because it’s that sort of matchup for him. Mehmet Okur might be the biggest frontcourt player of all, since the Spurs

Bench: The youth of Utah versus the experience of San Antonio. Paul Millsap provided amazing hustle in the Warriors series that possibly made the difference in a few of Utah’s wins–if he can do the same thing against the Spurs, then San Antonio will have an Oberto-type player to deal with that they might not be packaged to combat. Millsap has the uncanny ability to find where the basketball might travel after a missed shot and then track it down quickly–the only two players we can think of like that on the Spurs are Ginobili and Horry, and they’re more hustle to the ball type players.

As for the rest of Utah, Dee Brown might be used in brief spurts, although this is definitely the wrong type of series for him. How Sloan uses Matt Harpring can be of interest–will he use him to guard perimeter players like Ginobili or Finley(like he did against Stephen Jackson, taking him totally out of that series)? Or will he use him on double teams of Duncan? Gordon Giricek will spend as much time as possible not trying to take a shot.

The Spurs will have all the smarts off the bench, but can they keep up with Utah once they go deep into it? We’ll know soon enough.

Prediction: Yeah, right. Didn’t I tell you I don’t give a shit who wins?

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Fine. Utah in 7. I’m hopelessly biased here (I want the Spurs to lose), but I think everyone who is pencilling in another San Antonio-Detroit Finals might be in for a surprise. Utah is well-coached and will give San Antonio a run for their money. They will not cave.

Leave your thoughts either on the comments or on this series in the message board. Or just bash the NBA for the Suns. Either works for me.

(Image from Xinhua News)